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There is currently nothing on the horizon tropically in the Atlantic before Hurricane Season starts on June 1st.
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| #450140 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 PM 14.Aug.2011) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011 1100 PM AST SUN AUG 14 2011 ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...GERT IS CHARACTERIZED BY A FAIRLY CIRCULAR AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION BUT IS LACKING IN BANDING FEATURES. A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE THAT FORMED OVER THE STORM IS PROVIDING SOME MODEST OUTFLOW...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS FROM A FEW HOURS AGO...THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KT...WHICH IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES. GERT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND IN A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION. BY AROUND 48 HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE AN ABRUPT INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR AS GERT APPROACHES A BELT OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IN 72 HOURS...PERHAPS SOONER...GERT IS LIKELY TO BECOME EMBEDDED IN A FRONTAL ZONE AND TRANSFORMED INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGE HIGH-LATITUDE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE FORWARD SPEED IS INCREASING AND THE MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 345/10. GERT IS MOVING BETWEEN A RATHER DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS NEARING THE U.S. EAST COAST AND A SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH...THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK OF GERT AS ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE LEFT DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS COULD BRING STRONG WINDS CLOSE TO...OR OVER...THE ISLAND. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 30.2N 63.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 31.9N 63.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 34.7N 62.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 38.5N 59.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 42.0N 55.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 47.0N 40.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
