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#4571 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 PM 12.Aug.2004)
TCMAT3
HURRICANE CHARLEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032004
2100Z THU AUG 12 2004

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED
NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST TO BAYPORT. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE DRY TORTUGAS
TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM EAST
CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO BAYPORT. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

THE HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
FROM NORTH OF BAYPORT NORTHWARD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA
MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING ALL OF
FLORIDA BAY. AT 5 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS FROM JUPITER INLET
NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES OF
WESTERN CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...
MATANZAS...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. AT 5 PM...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 81.9W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 40SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 140SE 60SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 81.9W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 81.6W

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 23.1N 82.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 26.5N 83.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 30.5N 82.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 34.2N 80.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 42.0N 75.0W...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 48.5N 65.0W...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 81.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z

FORECASTER STEWART