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#4616 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 PM 12.Aug.2004)
TCMAT3
HURRICANE CHARLEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032004
0300Z FRI AUG 13 2004

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD
ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST TO THE MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER. A
HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE
DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE
RIVER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
PROVINCES OF WESTERN CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE
LA HABANA...MATANZAS...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA
MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
AT 11 PM...0300Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM JUPITER INLET TO OCEAN
REEF...AND NORTHWARD ALONG THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS TO
SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTHEASTERN U. S. COAST FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 82.4W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 45SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 140SE 60SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 82.4W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 82.2W

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 24.0N 82.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 26.8N 82.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 31.0N 81.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 35.0N 79.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 43.5N 74.0W...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 48.5N 66.5W...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.2N 82.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z

FORECASTER BEVEN