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#46681 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 AM 18.Sep.2005)
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172005
0900Z SUN SEP 18 2005

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
PHILIPPE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 55.5W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 55.5W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 55.3W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 15.3N 56.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.4N 56.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.5N 57.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.7N 58.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.0N 60.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 23.5N 61.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 26.0N 62.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 55.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

FORECASTER PASCH