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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 15 (Nate) , Major: 32 (Maria) Florida - Any: 42 (Irma) Major: 42 (Irma)
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#46688 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:46 AM 18.Sep.2005)
TCMAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005
0900Z SUN SEP 18 2005

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AS WELL AS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 71.2W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 71.2W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 70.7W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 22.2N 73.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 22.8N 75.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 23.4N 77.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 23.8N 80.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 24.0N 84.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 24.0N 89.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 24.0N 93.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 71.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN