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#46734 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:46 AM 18.Sep.2005)
TCMAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005
1500Z SUN SEP 18 2005

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO DRY
TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTH FLORIDA...AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CUBA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 72.2W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 72.2W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 71.7W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 22.6N 73.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 23.2N 76.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 23.7N 78.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 23.8N 80.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 24.0N 85.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 24.0N 90.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 25.0N 94.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 72.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

FORECASTER KNABB