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#46866 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 AM 19.Sep.2005)
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005

THE NEW RECONAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IN THE SYSTEM AT 07Z FOUND THAT THE
PRESSURE HAD FALLEN TO 999 MB...AND FIRST SATELLITE IMAGES AFTER
THE ECLIPSE SHOW THAT CONVECTION IS NOW WRAPPING AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER AND HAS TAKEN A MORE BANDED APPEARANCE. A
DROPSONDE IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT HAD 44 KT AT THE SURFACE...WITH
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS IN THIS QUADRANT OF 57 KT. THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT HAS NOT YET BEEN SAMPLED...AND I PRESUME THAT HIGHER WINDS
WILL BE FOUND THERE DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT.

THE LAST TWO AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE AN ALMOST DUE WEST MOTION...BUT
WITH ALL THE CENTER REFORMATIONS THAT HAVE OCCURRED IT IS DIFFICULT
TO ASCERTAIN A REPRESENTATIVE MOTION. MY BEST JUDGEMENT IS 280/8.
RITA HAS ALREADY PASSED THE LONGITUDE OF THE BREAK IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND WILL COME UNDER INCREASING PRESSURE TO HAVE
THE TRACK NUDGE TO THE LEFT. FURTHERMORE...NOW THAT THE CONVECTION
IS BECOMING A LITTLE MORE SYMMETRIC...THERE SHOULD BE LESS
LIKELIHOOD OF ADDITIONAL NORTHWARD REFORMATIONS OF THE CENTER.
MODEL GUIDANCE ADJUSTED TO THE CURRENT LOCATION IS VERY TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED ON A PATH THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS SOUTH OF KEY
WEST...AND I HAVE ADJUSTED THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THERE HAS BEEN A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHIFT
IN THE GUIDANCE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE GLOBAL
MODELS ABRUPTLY WEAKENING THE MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF
AND ALLOWING RITA TO BEGIN A SHARPER RECURVATURE TRACK. WHILE I
HAVE ADJUSTED THE 120-HR POINT ABOUT 120 NM NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...I AM STILL WELL TO THE LEFT OF MOST OF THE 120-HR
GUIDANCE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN IS SHIFTING EASTWARD...AND AS IT DOES SO THE SOUTHERLY
SHEAR OVER RITA WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
FASTER DEVELOPMENT RATE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.


FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0900Z 22.7N 74.3W 50 KT
12HR VT 19/1800Z 23.1N 76.0W 60 KT
24HR VT 20/0600Z 23.6N 78.5W 70 KT
36HR VT 20/1800Z 24.0N 81.2W 80 KT
48HR VT 21/0600Z 24.2N 84.0W 90 KT
72HR VT 22/0600Z 24.5N 88.5W 100 KT
96HR VT 23/0600Z 25.5N 92.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 24/0600Z 27.5N 96.0W 95 KT