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#47281 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:43 PM 20.Sep.2005)
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172005
2100Z TUE SEP 20 2005


TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 57.5W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 125SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 57.5W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 57.4W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.8N 57.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.8N 58.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 24.0N 59.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 26.5N 59.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 32.0N 60.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 37.5N 54.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 57.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA