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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 13 (Nate) , Major: 31 (Maria) Florida - Any: 41 (Irma) Major: 41 (Irma)
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#47283 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:49 PM 20.Sep.2005)
TCMAT3
HURRICANE RITA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005
2100Z TUE SEP 20 2005

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS...AND FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY ON THE FLORIDA SOUTHEAST COAST
SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE...THEN NORTHWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE ON THE
SOUTHWEST COAST. THE HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED
LATER TODAY AS RITA MOVES FARTHER INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...AND LA HABANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE
OF PINAR DEL RIO.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS NORTH OF FLORIDA
CITY AND FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 82.2W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 25SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 45SE 40SW 45NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 60SW 105NW.
12 FT SEAS..140NE 90SE 90SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 82.2W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 81.7W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 24.1N 84.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 24.2N 87.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 90SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 24.5N 89.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 90SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 25.0N 91.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 45SE 45SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 27.0N 94.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 45SE 45SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 30.0N 97.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 34.1N 97.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.0N 82.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

FORECASTER AVILA