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#47538 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:58 PM 21.Sep.2005)
TCMAT3
HURRICANE RITA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005
2100Z WED SEP 21 2005

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR GULF OF
MEXICO COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO CAMERON LOUISIANA.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
EAST OF CAMERON TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO
NORTHWARD.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA.


HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 86.8W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 914 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 145 KT WITH GUSTS TO 175 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 60SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT.......150NE 125SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 175SE 150SW 275NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 86.8W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 86.2W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 24.5N 88.5W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...125NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 125SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 25.2N 90.6W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...125NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 125SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 26.0N 92.7W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...125NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 125SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 27.0N 94.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
50 KT...125NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 125SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 30.5N 97.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 33.0N 97.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 36.0N 96.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 86.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

FORECASTER AVILA