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#47597 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:31 PM 21.Sep.2005)
TCMAT3
HURRICANE RITA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005
0300Z THU SEP 22 2005

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST
FROM PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING
MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA THURSDAY
MORNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA... FROM EAST OF CAMERON TO GRAND ISLE
LOUISIANA... AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST
OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE RITA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 87.2W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 897 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 150 KT WITH GUSTS TO 185 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT.......160NE 140SE 100SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..275NE 200SE 200SW 275NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 87.2W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 86.8W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 24.9N 88.7W
MAX WIND 155 KT...GUSTS 190 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 110SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 25.5N 90.5W
MAX WIND 150 KT...GUSTS 185 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 120SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 26.3N 92.4W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 120NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 130SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 27.5N 94.2W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
50 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 120NW.
34 KT...190NE 180SE 130SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 31.0N 96.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 150SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 33.5N 96.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 35.0N 96.5W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 87.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

FORECASTER STEWART