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#47707 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:01 AM 22.Sep.2005)
TCMAT3
HURRICANE RITA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005
1500Z THU SEP 22 2005

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM PORT
O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
SOUTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA
EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
NORTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE MOUTH OF THE
PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH
OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 88.7W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 907 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 145 KT WITH GUSTS TO 175 KT.
64 KT....... 75NE 75SE 40SW 75NW.
50 KT.......100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT.......160NE 140SE 100SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..275NE 200SE 200SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 88.7W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 88.3W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 25.8N 89.9W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 110SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 26.9N 91.6W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
50 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 120SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 28.2N 93.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
50 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 120NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 130SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 30.0N 94.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 100SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...100NE 170SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 33.0N 95.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 25SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 34.0N 95.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 34.5N 94.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.4N 88.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

FORECASTER AVILA