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#47780 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:50 PM 22.Sep.2005)
TCMAT3
HURRICANE RITA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005
2100Z THU SEP 22 2005

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN
CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
NORTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE MOUTH OF THE
PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF
THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN....AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO PORT
MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STROM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 89.5W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 913 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT.......120NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT.......180NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..275NE 200SE 200SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 89.5W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 89.1W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 26.5N 90.7W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...120NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 27.8N 92.4W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 29.2N 93.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 30.5N 94.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 100SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 33.0N 95.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 33.0N 95.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 33.0N 95.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.8N 89.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

FORECASTER AVILA