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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 15 (Nate) , Major: 33 (Maria) Florida - Any: 43 (Irma) Major: 43 (Irma)
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#47782 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:53 PM 22.Sep.2005)
TCDAT3
HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2005

RITA IS GOING TROUGH THE WEAKENING PHASE OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE AND DATA FROM THE NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT
WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 125 KNOTS...AND THIS MAY BE GENEROUS.
HOWEVER...THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS REMAINED AROUND 913
MB...WHICH IS A VERY LOW PRESSURE TO HAVE ONLY 125 KNOTS. IN
ADDITION TO THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...RITA IS CURRENTLY
MOVING OVER THE EDGE OF A COLD SST EDDY. THIS COULD HAVE ENHANCED
THE WEAKENING TODAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER ANOTHER
WARM EDDY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THERE IS SOME CHANCE
THAT RITA COULD REGAIN SOME INTENSITY. BECAUSE THE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE...THIS MAY COMPENSATE FOR THE STRENGTHENING
THAT MAY BE CAUSED BY THE EFFECTS OF THE HIGH HEAT CONTENT. THE
BEST OPTION AT THIS TIME IS TO KEEP RITA AS A 125 KT HURRICANE WITH
A SLIGHT WEAKENING BEFORE LANDFALL. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT RITA
IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A DANGEROUS HURRICANE OF AT LEAST A
CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS.
THE FORECAST TRACK HAS NOT CHANGED AND RITA IS EXPECTED TO BE
STEERED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST TOWARD THE
UPPER-TEXAS OR THE WESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EASTWARD. AFTER LANDFALL...STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
AND THE CYCLONE COULD MEANDER FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE VICINITY
OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS.

BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII...THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD AND NORTHWARD ALONG THE
LOUISIANA COAST. ANY TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE NEW ORLEANS
AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO A FEW SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH
QUICKLY MOVING RAINBANDS.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/2100Z 25.8N 89.5W 125 KT
12HR VT 23/0600Z 26.5N 90.7W 125 KT
24HR VT 23/1800Z 27.8N 92.4W 125 KT
36HR VT 24/0600Z 29.2N 93.8W 120 KT
48HR VT 24/1800Z 30.5N 94.5W 75 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 25/1800Z 33.0N 95.0W 40 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 26/1800Z 33.0N 95.0W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 27/1800Z 33.0N 95.0W 25 KT...INLAND