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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 13 (Nate) , Major: 31 (Maria) Florida - Any: 41 (Irma) Major: 41 (Irma)
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#47960 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:55 AM 23.Sep.2005)
TCDAT3
HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2005

RITA HAS WEAKENED SINCE YESTERDAY. THE EYE IS NOT AS DISTINCT AND
THE CONVECTION IS NOT AS INTENSE AS 24 HOURS AGO. THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WHICH HAS RISEN TO AROUND 927 MB AND
WINDS HAVE DECREASED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN
TO 115 KNOTS. UNLESS ANOTHER EYEWALL CYCLE OCCURS THAT COULD BRING
THE WINDS TEMPORARILY UP A LITTLE BIT...THE OVERALL TENDENCY IS FOR
RITA TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY. SO FAR THE PASSAGE OF RITA OVER THE WARM
EDDY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS NOT RESULTED IN INTENSIFICATION.
HOWEVER...RESEARCH SUGGESTS THERE IS A LAG IN THE ATMOSPHERIC
RESPONSE. NEVERTHERLESS...RITA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS
CATEGORY 3 OR...A LITTLE LESS LIKELY...CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY.

UPPER-AIR DATA SHOWS THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTROLLING THE
MOTION OF THE HURRICANE IS ALREADY NORTH AND EAST OF RITA AND IS
CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS AND TENNESSEE. CONSEQUENTLY...RITA HAS TURNED
MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND IS NOW MOVING 310 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TRACK IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE LANDFALL NEAR THE
UPPER TEXAS OR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COAST EARLY SATURDAY. ONCE
INLAND...THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AND RITA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVER NORTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN
ARKANSAS. RITA BY THEN WILL LIKELY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS VERY CLOSELY THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

RITA IS A LARGE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD A GREAT DISTANCE. A SOND DROPPED FROM A RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE MEASURED 56 KNOTS SURFACE WINDS ABOUT 120 N MI WEST OF THE
EYE.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/1500Z 27.4N 91.9W 115 KT
12HR VT 24/0000Z 28.3N 93.1W 115 KT
24HR VT 24/1200Z 30.0N 94.2W 100 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 25/0000Z 31.5N 95.0W 45 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 25/1200Z 33.0N 94.5W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 26/1200Z 33.5N 94.0W 25 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 27/1200Z 33.5N 94.0W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 28/1200Z 33.5N 94.0W 25 KT...INLAND