Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season officially over. 2018's runs June 1st-Nov 30th, 2018.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 71 (Nate) , Major: 89 (Maria) Florida - Any: 98 (Irma) Major: 98 (Irma)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 
Show Selection:
Show plain - Location:
#48061 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 PM 23.Sep.2005)
TCDAT3
HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2005

THE WEAKENING TREND APPEARS TO HAVE LEVELED OFF. IT APPEARS THAT THE
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES HAVE BEEN THE DOMINANT FACTOR...AS
USUAL...IN CONTROLLING THE INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS OF RITA. FLIGHT
LEVEL WIND DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ABOUT 110 KNOTS. OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE
INCREASED A LITTLE SUGGESTING STRONGER WINDS BUT I RATHER WAIT FOR
THESE NUMBERS TO PERSIST. ONLY A SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST
BEFORE LANDFALL DUE TO SHEAR AND COOLER OCEAN. THIS IS NOT A VERY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE AND IN FACT...RITA IS STILL FORECAST TO MAKE
LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE.

THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT
ABOUT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
THE STEERING PATTERN IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA SHOULD REACH THE UPPER TEXAS/SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA COAST SATURDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER...THE STEERING
CURRENTS ARE FOREAST TO COLLAPSE AND A WEAKENED RITA COULD
MEANDER FOR A FEW DAYS OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINS.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/2100Z 28.2N 92.6W 110 KT
12HR VT 24/0600Z 29.2N 93.7W 105 KT
24HR VT 24/1800Z 30.8N 94.5W 65 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 25/0600Z 32.5N 94.5W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 25/1800Z 33.5N 94.5W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 26/1800Z 33.5N 94.5W 25 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 27/1800Z 33.5N 94.5W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 28/1800Z 33.5N 94.5W 25 KT...INLAND