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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 15 (Nate) , Major: 32 (Maria) Florida - Any: 42 (Irma) Major: 42 (Irma)
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#48218 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:58 AM 24.Sep.2005)
TCDAT3
HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 24 2005

REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WSR-88D RADARS INDICATE THAT RITA MADE
LANDFALL JUST EAST OF SABINE PASS ABOUT 0730Z WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF
NEAR 105 KT AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 937 MB. SINCE LANDFALL...THE
CONVECTION IN THE REMAINS OF THE NORTHWEST EYEWALL HAS BECOME QUITE
INTENSE...POSSIBLY DUE TO INCREASED FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE OVER
LAND. OVERALLL...RITA SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND...
BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM IN 18-24 HR AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN
36 HR. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS UNLIKELY TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE
BEFORE 120 HR. THIS...COMBINED WITH THE FORECAST SLOW MOTION...
WILL CONTINUE A THREAT FOR VERY HEAVY RAINS LONG AFTER THE WINDS
HAVE SUBSIDED.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/10. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN MORE NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HR
WITH SOME DECELERATION...THEN TURN SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD. THE
GUIDANCE THEN DIVERGES...WITH SOME OF THE MODELS CALLING FOR A LOOP
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEST OF RITA...SOME CALLING FOR SLOW
MOTION...AND THE GFS CALLING FOR A RAPID MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST.
GIVEN THE SPREAD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WILL FOLLOW THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND CALL FOR LITTLE MOTION AFTER 48 HR.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/0900Z 29.9N 93.9W 105 KT
12HR VT 24/1800Z 30.9N 94.3W 70 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 25/0600Z 32.3N 94.5W 40 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 25/1800Z 33.0N 94.0W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 26/0600Z 33.5N 93.5W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 27/0600Z 33.5N 93.5W 25 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 28/0600Z 33.5N 93.5W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 29/0600Z 33.5N 93.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING