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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 15 (Nate) , Major: 33 (Maria) Florida - Any: 43 (Irma) Major: 43 (Irma)
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#4992 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:59 PM 13.Aug.2004)
TCDAT3
HURRICANE CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

CHARLEY HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING ITS PASSAGE OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO AT LEAST 975
MB...WHILE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A MARKED DECREASE IN THE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT CHARLEY RETAINS THE TIGHT WIND CORE IT HAD
AT LANDFALL...ALTHOUGH THE SMALL EYE SEEN ON RADAR AT LANDFALL IS
GONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 75 KT BASED ON A COMBINATION
OF SURFACE AND WSR-88D DOPPLER WIND DATA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 020/22. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. CHARLEY IS NOW EMBEDDED IN DEEP LAYER
SOUTHWESTERLIES ON THE EAST SIDE OF A UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH.
THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH 48 HR
FOLLOWED BY A MORE NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AT HIGH LATITUDES. THIS
TRACK SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF CHARLEY ACROSS OPEN WATER FOR
12-18 HR OR SO BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST OF SOUTH OR NORTH
CAROLINA....THEN MOVE IT ALONG THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS
ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE PROBLEMATIC. THERE ARE A LOT OF
NEGATIVE FACTORS...INCLUDING COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAN
CHARLEY EXPERIENCED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR...AND INCREASING PROXIMITY TO A FRONTAL ZONE. THE
BIGGEST POSITIVE FACTOR IS THE CONTINUED EXISTENCE OF THE INNER
CORE. BASED ON THE CORE...AND THE GFDL GUIDANCE CALLING FOR SOME
INTENSIFICATION...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR SOME SLOW
STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE NEXT LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL...CHARLEY
SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MERGES WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE AND BECOMES
EXTRATROPICAL.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0300Z 29.1N 81.1W 75 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 14/1200Z 32.0N 80.0W 80 KT...OVER WATER
24HR VT 15/0000Z 36.3N 77.6W 60 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 15/1200Z 41.1N 74.1W 45 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 16/0000Z 44.6N 70.7W 30 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 17/0000Z 48.5N 63.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 18/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM