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| #513565 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 AM 26.May.2012) TCDAT2 SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012 1100 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012 BERYL HAS GENERALLY CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS MINIMAL AND ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE CYCLONE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY OF BERYL. BERYL HAS TURNED SOUTHWESTWARD AND IS MOVING AT A LITTLE FASTER PACE THAN EARLIER...NOW AT ABOUT 8 KT. A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO KEEP BERYL MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST BY LATE SUNDAY. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND BRINGS THE CENTER OF BERYL TO THE NORTHERN FLORIDA OR GEORGIA COASTLINE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. AFTER LANDFALL THE MODELS BECOME QUITE DIVERGENT...HOWEVER...AND DIFFER ON HOW FAR INLAND THE CYCLONE GETS BEFORE IT RECURVES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH. SEVERAL OF THE MODELS INCLUDING THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND HWRF BRING BERYL A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES INLAND BEFORE IT REVERSES ITS COURSE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF SHOWS RECURVATURE VERY NEAR THE COAST. THE DIFFERENCES IN THESE SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF BERYL IN THE MODELS AND TO SOME DEGREE THE POSITION AND AMPLITUDE OF THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH BLENDS THE GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE...IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH LANDFALL AND THEN VERY NEAR THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE SUBTROPICAL STORM IS ENTANGLED WITH A MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW WITH DRY AIR CONTINUING TO BE ENTRAINED INTO THE CIRCULATION. THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW WEAKENING AND BERYL EVOLVING INTO A FULLY TROPICAL CYCLONE ON SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...HOWEVER...IS NOT EXPECTED AS BERYL WILL BE OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS BY THEN. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 31.6N 76.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 31.1N 77.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 30.5N 79.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 30.4N 80.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 30.5N 82.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 29/1200Z 31.2N 82.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 30/1200Z 32.5N 79.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 31/1200Z 36.0N 73.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/FRANKLIN |
