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| #513849 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:50 AM 27.May.2012) TCDAT2 SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012 1100 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012 CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING IN BROKEN BANDS AROUND THE CENTER OF BERYL DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND IT APPEARS THAT BERYL MAY BE TRANSITIONING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE EARLIER CONVECTION AND THE STILL SOMEWHAT LARGE AREA OF LIGHTER WINDS NEAR THE CENTER...BERYL IS MAINTAINED AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE FOR NOW. THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING BERYL RECENTLY MEASURED PEAK 1000 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 65 KT AND BELIEVABLE SFMR WINDS OF 49 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 50 KT. BERYL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE SLIGHTLY COOLER SHELF WATERS AND LIKELY DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH TIME FOR THE WIND FIELD TO CONTRACT SIGNIFICANTLY. THEREFORE...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL...BERYL SHOULD WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION...SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AFTER THE CYCLONE REEMERGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN 2-3 DAYS. BERYL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD... BUT THIS COULD OCCUR EARLIER THAN SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS. THE AIRCRAFT CENTER FIXES HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MAXIMUM ROTATION SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/09. BERYL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH LANDFALL THAT SHOULD OCCUR LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWARD...THEN NORTHEASTWARD AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND A TROUGH APPROACHES THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THERE IS STILL A LARGE DIFFERENCE AMONG THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAR WEST BERYL WILL MOVE BEFORE TURNING NORTHWARD. THE ECMWF SHOWS BERYL TURNING MORE SHARPLY NORTHWARD...WHILE MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE TAKES THE CYCLONE WELL INLAND OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED WESTWARD BUT STILL LIES TO THE EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE ECMWF. AFTER THE NORTHEASTWARD TURN...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE HEADING OF BERYL...BUT DIFFER ON THE FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECWMF AT 72 H AND BEYOND. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 30.1N 79.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 30.2N 80.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...TROPICAL 24H 28/1200Z 30.3N 82.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 29/0000Z 30.8N 82.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 29/1200Z 31.4N 82.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 30/1200Z 33.5N 78.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 31/1200Z 37.0N 70.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 01/1200Z 41.0N 58.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI |
