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#51929 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:08 PM 15.Oct.2005)
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 1...CORRECTION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2005

...CORRECTED BIN NUMBER...BIN 4 INSTEAD OF 3...

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS PERSISTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS IN THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH CONVECTION AND SURFACE
CIRCULATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A 25-KNOT TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE
CIRCULATION IS RATHER BROAD AND THE AREA OF MINIMUM PRESSURE COULD
BE ANYWHERE WITHIN 60 MILES FROM THE INITIAL POINT IN THE ADVISORY.
THIS IS COMMON IN DEVELOPING SYSTEMS. THE CYCLONE HAS NOT DEVELOPED
A TIGHT INNER CORE YET. DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SHOWS SO
FAR A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT WINDS WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1004 MB
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY
SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS OF THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...AND WITHIN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. BOTH SHIPS AND THE
GFDL SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS. IN FACT...THE GFDL MAKES THIS CYCLONE A VERY
INTENSE HURRICANE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN CUBA AND
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST BUT NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL...AND MORE ALONG THE
LINE OF THE SHIPS MODEL.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 3 KNOTS. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS BLOCKING ANY NORTHWARD
MOTION AND IS KEEPING VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AT THIS TIME.
THEREFORE...A SLOW WESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 3
DAYS. BY THEN...A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE COULD DEVELOP OVER FLORIDA
AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE GFDL...THE
UK...THE ECMWF AND THE NOGAPS MODELS. THE GFS DOES NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY DEVELOP THE CYCLONE AND DOES NOT CARRY THE SYSTEM
MORE THAN A DAY OR TWO.

ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE COULD BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS.
HOWEVER...BOTH GENESIS AND INTENSIFICATION ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/2100Z 17.6N 78.8W 25 KT
12HR VT 16/0600Z 17.5N 79.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 16/1800Z 17.5N 80.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 17/0600Z 17.5N 80.5W 60 KT
48HR VT 17/1800Z 17.5N 81.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 18/1800Z 17.5N 82.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 19/1800Z 18.0N 82.5W 85 KT
120HR VT 20/1800Z 19.5N 83.0W 85 KT