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Storm #Arlene still firing convection near the center today while spinning fish
# of days since last Hurricane Landfall - US: Any 201 (Matthew) , Major: 4203 (11 y 6 m) (Wilma) Florida - Any: 237 (Hermine) Major: 4203 (11 y 6 m) (Wilma)
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#51957 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:46 PM 15.Oct.2005)
TCMAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005
0300Z SUN OCT 16 2005

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR ALL OF
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 79.0W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 225 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 79.0W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 78.9W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.8N 79.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.6N 80.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.6N 80.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.8N 80.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.5N 81.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 18.5N 82.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 20.5N 83.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 79.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

FORECASTER KNABB