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Storm #Arlene still firing convection near the center today while spinning fish
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#51964 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:49 AM 16.Oct.2005)
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SLOWLY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.0 WEST OR
ABOUT 215 MILES... 345 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT
125 MILES... 205 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA.

THE DEPRESSION HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY... BUT A SLOW WEST TO
SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION OF ABOUT 3 MPH...6 KM/HR... IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN WEAK SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA... WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...17.0 N... 79.0 W. MOVEMENT
STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART