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| #519907 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:56 AM 21.Jun.2012) TCDAT3 HURRICANE CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032012 1100 AM AST THU JUN 21 2012 CHRIS HAS MAINTAINED ITS EYE FEATURE THIS MORNING...AND IN FACT THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE HAS IMPROVED. A 1111Z SSMIS OVERPASS ALSO INDICATED A SOLID CLOSED RING ON THE 37 GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE. THE EYE TEMPERATURE HAS WARMED AND THE COLD INNER CORE CLOUD TOPS ARE -60C TO -70C...RESULTING IN A DVORAK SATELLITE DATA-T ESTIMATES OF 4.5 AND CONSTRAINED FINAL T-NUMBERS OF 4.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. IN ADDITION...NOW THAT THE CIMSS ADT HAS OBJECTIVELY IDENTIFIED AN EYE SCENE TYPE...THE LAST FEW RAW T-NUMBERS WERE ALSO 4.4 TO 4.5. BASED ON THESE DATA AND CONSIDERING THE RELATIVELY COOL SSTS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 65 KT...MAKING CHRIS THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE SEASON. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD OVER COOLER WATER AND INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS. THE CYCLONE HAS BEGUN ITS EXPECTED TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...AT AN ESTIMATED 050/17. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS AS THE CYCLONE TURNS CYCLONICALLY...NORTHWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD AROUND A LARGER MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL BAROCLINIC SYSTEM. AFTERWARD...CHRIS SHOULD ULTIMATELY TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH AND BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE LOW IN 48 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 41.1N 43.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 42.8N 42.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 44.0N 43.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 23/0000Z 43.5N 45.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 23/1200Z 42.5N 45.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS |
