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| #519962 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 PM 21.Jun.2012) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032012 500 PM AST THU JUN 21 2012 COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 19-20C AND A MORE STABLE THERMODYNAMIC SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT ARE FINALLY TAKING ITS TOLL ON CHRIS. CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE AND AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE EYE FEATURE HAS OPENED UP OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE COME DOWN AND THE CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES SHOW AN INTENSITY BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE LOWERED TO 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND CHRIS IS FORECAST TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CHRIS BECOMING ABSORBED BY A LARGER BAROCLINIC LOW IN 48 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS SCENARIO. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING IN A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION...015/12 KT. CHRIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD...THEN WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE PERIPHERAL FLOW OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW. A SUBSEQUENT TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH COULD FOLLOW...WITH CHRIS BEING ABSORBED WITHIN THE LARGER LOW IN 48 HOURS OR LESS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 42.4N 42.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 43.9N 43.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 22/1800Z 43.8N 44.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 23/0600Z 42.8N 44.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 23/1800Z...ABSORBED BY ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS |
