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| #520059 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 AM 22.Jun.2012) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032012 500 AM AST FRI JUN 22 2012 CHRIS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND IS TRANSITIONING TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE STORM IS NOW DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION AND ONLY CONSISTS OF A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KT...FOLLOWING THE DOWNWARD TREND IN THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS. CHRIS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN FURTHER AND WILL LIKELY COMPLETE ITS TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER THIS MORNING. THE CYCLONE HAS TURNED TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/12. CHRIS...OR ITS POST-TROPICAL REMNANT...IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE COUNTER-CLOCKWISE AROUND A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED N MI TO ITS SOUTH. THIS LARGER LOW WILL ULTIMATELY ABSORB WHATEVER IS LEFT OF CHRIS IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. THE 34-KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN MODIFIED BASED ON AN OSCAT PASS AROUND 0200 UTC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 44.8N 44.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 44.3N 45.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 23/0600Z 43.2N 45.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI |
