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Storm #Arlene still firing convection near the center today while spinning fish
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#52654 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 PM 20.Oct.2005)
TCDAT4
HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU OCT 20 2005

WILMA HAS TURNED NORTHWESTWARD...310/5...BUT THIS IS NOT NECESSARILY
THE BEGINNINGS OF RECURVATURE. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN THE
WESTERLIES...THE OLD LOW FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA...WILL MOVE PAST THE
LONGITUDE OF THE HURRICANE BY TOMORROW MORNING...AND THE TRACK
MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT BEND BACK TO THE LEFT AS A LITTLE RIDGING
BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. IN FACT...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW
SUGGESTING THAT IT MAY TAKE THREE SHORT WAVES TO LIFT WILMA OUT OF
THE YUCATAN. THE GFDL DID ANOTHER BIG SHIFT WITH ITS 5-DAY
FORECAST...FROM CANADA AT 6Z TO CUBA AT 12Z. THERE IS LESS SPREAD
IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THIS TIME...HOWEVER...LENDING A LITTLE
MORE CREDENCE TO A SLOWER TRACK. THE 12Z MODELS ALSO HAD THE
BENEFIT OF DROPWINDSONDE DATA FROM THE NOAA GULFSTREAM JET. THE
NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS
STILL VERY MUCH FASTER THAN ALL OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. THIS
IMPLIES THAT THE IMPACT TO FLORIDA COULD WELL BE LATER THAN
INDICATED HERE.

THERE IS VERY LITTLE LEFT OF THE INNER EYEWALL...AND REPORTS FROM A
NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT WILMA IS BEGINNING TO
RESTRENGTHEN. PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 145 KT...AND THE SFMR
INSTRUMENT ONBOARD MEASURED A SURFACE WIND OF 125 KT IN THE NORTH
EYEWALL. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SET AT 130 KT. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS STRONG AND
WILMA WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE STATUS
BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN...AND THE IMPACTS THERE COULD BE
CATASTROPHIC. WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF A MORE EXTENDED INTERACTION
WITH THE YUCATAN INCREASING...SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE
BEFORE WILMA TURNS TOWARD FLORIDA. IN ADDITION...THE LONGER WILMA
LINGERS BEFORE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD...THE MORE HOSTILE THE
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME FOR STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/2100Z 18.9N 85.7W 130 KT
12HR VT 21/0600Z 19.5N 86.4W 140 KT
24HR VT 21/1800Z 20.4N 87.0W 145 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 22/0600Z 21.1N 87.2W 120 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 22/1800Z 22.0N 87.0W 100 KT
72HR VT 23/1800Z 23.5N 84.5W 95 KT
96HR VT 24/1800Z 27.5N 79.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 25/1800Z 38.0N 70.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL