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#53082 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:11 PM 22.Oct.2005)
TCDAT4
HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005

THE CENTER OF WILMA IS JUST ABOUT TO EMERGE OFF THE NORTHEASTERN TIP
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE ERRATIC NORTHWARD DRIFT SEEMS TO
HAVE EVOLVED INTO A PERSISENT...ALBEIT SLOW...NORTHWARD MOTION OF
ABOUT 2 KT. A VERY GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.
ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST WILMA TO CROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS....WITH THE MOST LIKELY
TIME BEING SOMETIME DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE AGREEMENT ON WHAT
PORTION OF THE PENINSULA WILMA WILL CROSS IS A LITTLE LESS THAN IT
WAS ON PREVIOUS CYCLES... AND SOME DISPARITY REMAINS ON HOW FAST
WILMA WILL ACCELERATE. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS NEARLY CERTAIN IT WILL
SPEED UP AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA SOON...SINCE A LARGE
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO
DEEPEN... WITH A TROUGH PUSHING WESTERLIES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
DESPITE THE MODEL SPREAD... THE LATEST CONSENSUS IS VERY CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS... SO THE PACE OF
THE NEW FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED. ONLY A SLIGHT NORTHWARD
ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN APPLIED SINCE MOST OF THE MODELS SHIFTED A TAD
IN THAT DIRECTION. AFTER PASSAGE OVER FLORIDA...THE FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED FARTHER TO THE NORTH TO LEAN TOWARD THE CONSENSUS.

A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 957 MB... NOT TOO MUCH HIGHER THAN ESTIMATED EARLIER
TODAY. THE SFMR MEASURED SURFACE WINDS NEAR 77 KT... AND A
DROPSONDE MEASURED 85 KT SURFACE WINDS... WITH THE LATTER BEING THE
BASIS FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. THERE IS SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
WILMA TO RESTRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO... DUE TO WARM WATERS BUT MODERATE SHEAR... AS SHOWN BY THE
GFDL. THEREAFTER... WESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SHOULD INCREASE AND INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND AS
WILMA APPROACHES FLORIDA... AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
THE INTENSITY OF WILMA WHILE CROSSING FLORIDA REMAINS QUITE
UNCERTAIN... AND THE BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT IT WILL BE A CATEGORY
TWO OR THREE AT LANDFALL. THE WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO EXPAND AS
IT ACCELERATES AND CROSSES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THEREFORE... THE
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY COVER A LARGE AREA.

BASED ON THE TRACK FORECAST AND THE LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH WILMA...NEW WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/2100Z 21.4N 87.1W 85 KT
12HR VT 23/0600Z 21.9N 86.8W 95 KT
24HR VT 23/1800Z 23.1N 85.7W 100 KT
36HR VT 24/0600Z 24.9N 83.5W 95 KT
48HR VT 24/1800Z 27.8N 79.6W 80 KT
72HR VT 25/1800Z 38.0N 69.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 26/1800Z 45.0N 58.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 27/1800Z 49.0N 44.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL