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| #531874 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:30 PM 04.Aug.2012) TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 0300 UTC SUN AUG 05 2012 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JAMAICA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 72.7W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......120NE 60SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 72.7W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 71.7W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.8N 75.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.1N 78.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 16.3N 81.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.0N 82.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 18.5N 86.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 20.5N 89.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 22.0N 92.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 72.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
