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| #532451 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:59 AM 07.Aug.2012) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 07 2012 AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING ERNESTO THIS MORNING FOUND THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 989 MB...BUT SO FAR THE SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WINDS DO NOT SUPPORT ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 55 KT FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY. THE AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGEST SOME EXPANSION OF THE INNER WIND FIELD...WHICH MAY PARTIALLY EXPLAIN THE LACK OF STRENGTHENING THIS MORNING. CIRRUS MOTIONS SHOW A FAIRLY WELL-ESTABLISHED ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW PATTERN OVER THE STORM. SINCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT UP TO LANDFALL...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW ERNESTO BECOMING A HURRICANE PRIOR TO REACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE VARIOUS INTENSITY MODEL PREDICTIONS. CENTER FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT THE MOTION CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...OR 290/12. NO IMPORTANT CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST ARE REQUIRED. ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN WESTWARD AS IT MOVES ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF A NARROW MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ALSO VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE GFS SHOWS A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND EVEN MOVES THE CYCLONE INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC IN 4-5 DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 18.1N 85.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 18.6N 86.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 19.0N 89.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 36H 09/0000Z 19.4N 91.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 09/1200Z 19.4N 93.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 10/1200Z 19.2N 96.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 96H 11/1200Z 19.0N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 120H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
