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| #534536 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:44 PM 15.Aug.2012) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012 1100 PM AST WED AUG 15 2012 ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP...THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN...WHICH IN FACT IS SMALL...IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THAN EARLIER TODAY. A CYCLONICALLY-CURVED BAND IS WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM...BUT THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS VERY LIMITED. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 2.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE WHICH RESULTS IN AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES AND THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS. ON THIS BASIS...THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS ONLY A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS FOLLOWING THE ICON AND THE LGEM MODELS...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THE HWRF...WHICH INSISTS ON MAKING THE DEPRESSION A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS OR SO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. VERY SOON...THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN AND RECURVE AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. ONCE IN THE WESTERLIES...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN EASTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FIRST PORTION OF THE FORECAST SINCE MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...AT LEAST DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT...THE FORECAST IS LESS CERTAIN...BUT IT APPEARS THAT IN 4 DAYS OR SO...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING VERY NEAR THE AZORES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 31.3N 55.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 33.0N 54.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 34.5N 52.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 35.5N 48.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 35.5N 44.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 35.5N 36.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 37.5N 28.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 21/0000Z 40.0N 22.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
