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| #535283 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 PM 18.Aug.2012) TCDAT3 HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012 1100 PM AST SAT AUG 18 2012 GORDON HAS AN IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE PRESENTATION WITH A DISTINCT WARM EYE. A BLEND OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES YIELDS AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 95 KT. THE HURRICANE IS CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM AND SHOULD BEGIN TO LOSE STRENGTH SOON. WEAKENING SHOULD BE MORE RAPID BY LATE TOMORROW AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOL WATERS AND IN A HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...ALTHOUGH EVERY MODEL KEEPS GORDON AS A HURRICANE AS IT PASSES THE AZORES. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE LGEM MODEL. A STRONG TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH GORDON IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD FACILITATE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY 72 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 080/19...A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE EAST- NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST WITHIN A DAY OR SO DUE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS WELL-CLUSTERED WITH ALMOST EVERY MODEL MOVING GORDON THROUGH THE EASTERN AZORES BETWEEN 24 AND 36 HOURS. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...STAYING ON THE SPEEDY SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SINCE GORDON HAS BEEN A FAST MOVER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 34.5N 33.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 35.1N 30.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 36.3N 26.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 37.7N 23.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 38.9N 20.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 39.5N 17.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 23/0000Z 39.0N 15.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
