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| #536094 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:53 AM 22.Aug.2012) TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102012 1100 AM AST WED AUG 22 2012 SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION AND SUFFICIENT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TO BE DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE BOTH 2.0...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30KT. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE UPPER-AIR ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...SOME INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. AFTER THAT TIME...THE INTENSITY WILL DEPEND IN LARGE PART ON HOW MUCH THE DEPRESSION BECOMES INVOLVED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IN ABOUT 3 DAYS AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL STORM ISAAC LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. INTERACTIONS WITH EITHER WOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE AND A POSSIBLE HALT IN INTENSIFICATION. FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/14. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...NEARLY IN TANDEM WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER EASTERN/CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AFTER ABOUT 3 DAYS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD AS IT REACHES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE INCREASES CONSIDERABLY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE GFS FORECASTING A DEEPER SYSTEM THAT TURNS MORE QUICKLY. THE HWRF SHOWS A SHALLOWER VORTEX THAT MOVES ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES...CLOSE TO THE ECMWF AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 12.4N 36.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 13.3N 38.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 14.3N 40.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 15.2N 43.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 16.2N 46.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 18.5N 52.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 21.8N 58.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 26.0N 64.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/ZELINSKY |
