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| #536160 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 PM 22.Aug.2012) TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102012 500 PM AST WED AUG 22 2012 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED...AND CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING...POSSIBLY COINCIDING WITH THE DIURNAL MINIMUM. FURTHERMORE...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND MAY BE SOMEWHAT ELONGATED. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT 2.0...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/14...HOWEVER THIS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO DIFFICULTY IN LOCATING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE DEPRESSION MOVES TOWARD A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. CAUSES THE RIDGE TO RETREAT AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REACHES THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE. THE TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT...AND IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL STORM ISAAC...AND THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC...ARE DISTORTING THE OUTFLOW OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE INTO A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION. IN THE SHORT TERM...THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK OVER THE SYSTEM. BY DAY THREE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CATCH UP TO THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN WIND SHEAR...AND A HALTING OF INTENSIFICATION. THE SHEAR MAY DECREASE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE UPPER LOW. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN LOWERED SLIGHTLY...IN LARGE PART DUE TO THE CURRENT ORGANIZATION OF THE STORM...AND IS CLOSE TO THE DECAY SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 13.1N 37.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 14.0N 39.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 15.0N 42.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 16.0N 44.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 17.1N 47.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 19.9N 53.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 23.5N 59.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 27/1800Z 28.5N 64.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/ZELINSKY |
