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| #536527 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:50 AM 24.Aug.2012) TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102012 500 AM AST FRI AUG 24 2012 DEEP CONVECTION NEAR TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE HAS BEEN VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTANT FOR ABOUT 10 HOURS DUE TO THE COMBINED INHIBITING INFLUENCES OF MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND DRY AIR. BOTH TAFB AND SAB DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT...WHICH IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. REDEVELOPMENT APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE CONTINUED HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT THAT THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN. INDEED...ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS...WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF THE GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM...INDICATE THAT JOYCE SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE INTENSITY PREDICTION KEEPS THE CYCLONE AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...MOST SIMILAR TO THE LGEM STATISTICAL MODEL. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP SOON...JOYCE COULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW AND ADVISORIES WOULD BE DISCONTINUED. THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS CLEARLY EVIDENT FROM THE GOES-EAST SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY. THIS ALLOWS FOR A CONFIDENT ASSESSMENT OF THE MOTION OF JOYCE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 KT. JOYCE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING IN THIS DIRECTION AT A FASTER RATE OF SPEED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS AS IT IS STEERED PRIMARILY BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW OF THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH. AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...THE CYCLONE SHOULD RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE HIGH. THE TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE TVCA CONSENSUS TECHNIQUE AND IS SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 16.9N 45.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 17.8N 47.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 19.2N 50.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 21.0N 54.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 22.8N 57.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 27.0N 63.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 28/0600Z 31.5N 64.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 29/0600Z 36.5N 56.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA |
