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| #53950 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 AM 25.Oct.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 42 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2005 MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT WILMA IS WEAKENING AND BEGINNING TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERSTICS. AN SSM/I OVERPASS AT 1117Z SHOWS THAT THE CENTER IS NORTHWEST OF THE PRIMARY CONVECTION...WHILE VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS COLD AIR CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE CENTER AND A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. WILMA SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM IN THE NEXT 12-24 HR...WHICH SHOULD FINISH OFF THE REMAINING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND THE REMAINING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS LIKE TO LOSE WILMA IN THE WARM FRONT OF A BAROCLINIC LOW CENTERED NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES IN LESS THAN 72 HR. GIVE THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...IT WILL PROBABLY LAST A BIT LONGER THAN THAT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY RAPID 045/046. ASSUMING WILMA IS NOT ABSORBED BY THE BAROCLINIC LOW...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL TURN THE CYCLONE EASTWARD OVER THE TOP OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGH 72 HR...FOLLOWED BY AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION BEFORE DISSIPATION. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/1500Z 38.5N 66.0W 90 KT 12HR VT 26/0000Z 42.3N 60.0W 75 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 26/1200Z 44.9N 54.3W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 27/0000Z 46.0N 47.8W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 27/1200Z 46.0N 40.9W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 28/1200Z 46.0N 30.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 29/1200Z 50.0N 20.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED |
