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| #540680 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:41 AM 06.Sep.2012) TCDAT3 HURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012 1100 AM AST THU SEP 06 2012 THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN OF MICHAEL THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY SLIGHT WARMING OF THE EYE EVIDENT IN ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY. A COMPROMISE OF THE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THE UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE ADT VALUE IS THE BASIS FOR MAINTAINING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KT. THERE IS A RELATIVELY SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE CYCLONE TO STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE BEFORE THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE. GRADUAL WEAKENING WILL BE EITHER DUE TO A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...OR THE RATHER LARGE OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE LESLIE. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON A BLEND OF THE IVCN CONSENSUS AND THE FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE. OF COURSE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW BOTH HURRICANES TRACK WITH TIME. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/6. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW A TURN TO THE NORTH AND THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OCCURRING DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING MID- TO UPPER- LEVEL LOW. SUBSEQUENTLY...AN INCREASING SPREAD IN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS...RIGHT AND LEFT OUTLIERS RESPECTIVELY...STILL EXISTS BEYOND THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE ECMWF SHOWS MORE INFLUENCE FROM A MID-LATITUDE RIDGE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE...WHILE THE GFS INDICATES MORE RESPONSE TO A MID- TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND SIDES WITH THE TVCA CONSENSUS...WHICH BASICALLY IS BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 30.1N 41.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 30.6N 41.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 31.2N 41.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 31.9N 42.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 32.4N 42.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 33.4N 44.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 35.2N 45.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 11/1200Z 38.0N 47.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS |
