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| #540884 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 AM 07.Sep.2012) TCDAT3 HURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012 500 AM AST FRI SEP 07 2012 THE WEAKENING TREND OF MICHAEL APPEARS TO HAVE STOPPED FOR NOW. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED AROUND THE EYE...AND THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE MORE SYMMETRIC THAN IT WAS 6 HOURS AGO. IN ADDITION...A RECENT AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE EYEWALL IS A LITTLE WIDER THAN IT WAS LAST NIGHT. AN AVERAGE OF THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE INITIAL WIND SPEED AT 90 KT...BUT MICHAEL COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER. MICHAEL IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 3 KT. THE STEERING FLOW IS QUITE WEAK AT THE MOMENT WITH A TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH OF MICHAEL AND A PAIR OF CUT OFF LOWS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE HURRICANE. A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. AFTER THAT...THE COMBINED INFLUENCES OF A STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF MICHAEL AND A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AIDS...TVCA AND TV15. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH OR SLIGHT WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS MICHAEL MOVES OVER 27 TO 28C WATERS AND REMAINS IN GENERALLY LOW WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE WATER TEMPERATURES BENEATH THE CYCLONE LOWER AND THE SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE...IN PART DUE TO THE OUTFLOW OF HURRICANE LESLIE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED UPWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY DUE TO THE RECENT IMPROVEMENT IN THE ORGANIZATION OF MICHAEL...BUT IS OTHERWISE UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE LGEM GUIDANCE. SOME OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT MICHAEL COULD BE A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY DAY 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 31.0N 40.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 31.4N 41.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 31.8N 41.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 32.4N 42.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 33.0N 42.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 34.3N 44.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 38.0N 46.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 12/0600Z 45.5N 47.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI |
