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| #540960 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:02 AM 07.Sep.2012) TCMAT3 HURRICANE MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012 1500 UTC FRI SEP 07 2012 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 41.1W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 41.1W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 41.0W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 31.5N 41.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 32.0N 41.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 32.7N 42.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 33.3N 43.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 34.7N 44.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 39.5N 47.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 48.5N 46.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.2N 41.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
