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| #541148 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 AM 08.Sep.2012) TCDAT3 HURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012 500 AM AST SAT SEP 08 2012 MICHAEL APPEARS TO BE MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH. A RAGGED EYE HAS BEEN OCCASIONALLY EVIDENT IN GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE MORE SYMMETRIC THAN IT WAS LAST NIGHT. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 85 KT...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB. ONLY A LITTLE WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS THE COMPACT HURRICANE REMAINS OVER 27 TO 28C WATERS AND IN A LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW OF LESLIE...IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING MICHAEL IN 2 TO 3 DAYS AND SHOULD CAUSE A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MICHAEL MERGING WITH A WARM FRONT TO THE EAST OF LESLIE BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND BECOMING ABSORBED BY THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CALLS FOR MICHAEL TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY DAY 4. THE HURRICANE HAS JOGGED TO THE NORTH RECENTLY...BUT A LONGER TERM MOTION IS 330/4. A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS MICHAEL REMAINS IN WEAK STEERING SURROUNDED BY A TROUGH TO ITS NORTHEAST...A RIDGE TO IS SOUTHEAST...AND A DEVELOPING RIDGE TO ITS NORTHWEST. THE RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF MICHAEL IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD...AND THAT WILL CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO TURN WEST- NORTHWESTWARD IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. BY 72 HOURS...MICHAEL IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND IN A STRONG SOUTHERLY STEERING CURRENT...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A NORTHWARD ACCELERATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AT DAYS 3 AND 4 TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF RUNS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 32.2N 41.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 32.6N 42.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 33.1N 42.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 33.5N 43.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 33.9N 44.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 36.7N 47.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 45.0N 47.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 13/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI |
