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| #542072 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:41 AM 11.Sep.2012) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012 1100 AM AST TUE SEP 11 2012 MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS VANISHED...AND MICHAEL CONSISTS OF A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS. GIVEN THAT MICHAEL WAS A HURRICANE...AND WINDS TAKE TIME TO SPIN DOWN...IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 40 KNOTS. IN FACT...THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY A RECENT ASCAT PASS A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO. SINCE THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY OVER COOL WATERS AND EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG SHEAR...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED...AND MICHAEL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. IT SHOULD THEN BECOME ABSORBED BY A FRONT IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 020 DEGREES AT 20 KNOTS. MICHAEL IS BEING STEERED BY THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A WEAK SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE EAST AND A STRONG TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNTIL THE SYSTEM BECOMES ABSORBED BY A FRONT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 39.2N 47.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 43.0N 46.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 12/1200Z 48.0N 40.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 13/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
