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| #547480 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:41 AM 03.Oct.2012) TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152012 1100 AM AST WED OCT 03 2012 DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...THERE WERE CONFLICTING SIGNALS CONCERNING THE EXISTENCE AND LOCATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT A MORE DEFINITIVE CIRCULATION HAS TAKEN SHAPE...CONSISTING OF MULTIPLE SWIRLS ROTATING AROUND A COMMON CENTER. ALTHOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION IS DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER...IT APPEARS TO HAVE ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO DEEM THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NORTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND A MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SINCE A CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO TRACK...THE INITIAL MOTION OF 320/13 KT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES AROUND THE ANTICYCLONE AND GETS PICKED UP IN THE FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS ALREADY INCREASING NEAR THE DEPRESSION AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE...VERY LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN FACT...EVERY GLOBAL MODEL INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL DISSIPATE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC LOW BY 72 HOURS...AND THAT RESULT IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 17.3N 41.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 19.1N 42.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 20.6N 42.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 22.2N 41.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 24.3N 38.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 06/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ FORECASTER BERG |
