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| #547546 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 PM 03.Oct.2012) TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152012 500 PM AST WED OCT 03 2012 THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS DEFINED BY SEVERAL SWIRLS REVOLVING AROUND A COMMON POINT...WHICH IS DISPLACED ABOUT 80 N MI TO THE WEST OF A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBERS ARE 2.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...SO THE CYCLONE REMAINS A 30-KT DEPRESSION. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR INFILTRATING THE CIRCULATION FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE DEPRESSION BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM IN A DAY OR SO...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE STRADDLES THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE THRESHOLD...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF STRENGTHENING DID NOT OCCUR. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS NOW SHOW THE CYCLONE DISSIPATING INTO A TROUGH IN 48HR...AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE NHC FORECAST. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/12 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS BEING STEERED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL HIGH NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. A NORTHWARD TURN IS EXPECTED IN 12-24 HR...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION IN 36 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE DEEP-LAYER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS MOTION SHOULD THEN CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE TRACK MODELS REMAIN IN CLOSE AGREEMENT...AND THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 18.6N 42.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 19.7N 42.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 21.2N 42.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 22.9N 40.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG |
