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| #547724 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 AM 04.Oct.2012) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM OSCAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152012 1100 AM AST THU OCT 04 2012 ABOUT 20 KT OF DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO DISPLACE DEEP CONVECTION ABOUT 100 N MI EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. DESPITE THE HOSTILE CONDITIONS...OSCAR HAS STRENGTHENED...AND A 1300 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 40 KT. THE SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND FARTHER TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. STRONG SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AFFECTING OSCAR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...SO VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR OSCAR TO DISSIPATE IN 36 HOURS WHEN IT GETS OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT... MATCHING THE SCENARIO SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. OSCAR HAS TURNED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 020/8 KT. THE STORM IS APPROACHING STRONGER MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES TO ITS NORTH...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AS A DEEP-LAYER LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS...LIKELY TO GALE FORCE...ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AFTER OSCAR DISSIPATES. FOR ADDITIONAL FORECAST INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE METEO FRANCE MET OFFICE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 20.6N 41.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 21.8N 40.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 23.8N 38.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG |
