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| #547926 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 AM 05.Oct.2012) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM OSCAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152012 500 AM AST FRI OCT 05 2012 OSCAR REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS MORNING...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT. DUE TO CONTINUED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE OSCAR IS ABSORBED BY AN ONCOMING COLD FRONT LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. OSCAR IS NOW EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT OSCAR SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL IT IS ABSORBED BY THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...WITH THE REMNANT VORTICITY CENTER SUBSEQUENTLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. STRONG SOUTHERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AFTER OSCAR DISSIPATES. FOR ADDITIONAL FORECAST INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE METEO FRANCE MET OFFICE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 23.0N 38.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 25.5N 35.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
