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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 14 (Nate) , Major: 32 (Maria) Florida - Any: 42 (Irma) Major: 42 (Irma)
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#6131 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 AM 26.Aug.2004)
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANCES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062004
0900Z THU AUG 26 2004

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 43.7W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 43.7W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 43.0W

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 13.3N 45.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 14.5N 48.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 16.0N 50.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 17.0N 51.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 18.5N 53.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 19.5N 55.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 20.9N 59.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.6N 43.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z

FORECASTER AVILA