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#6163 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 PM 26.Aug.2004)
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU AUG 26 2004

FRANCES HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A SMALL 10-15
NMI DIAMETER BANDING EYE FEATURE OCCASIONALLY APPEARING. SATELLITE
INTENSITY IS T4.0...OR 65 KT...FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND THE
TREND OF GOING SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE
INDICATING IS BEING CONTINUED ON THIS ADVISORY. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
IS GOOD TO EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS AND CONTINUES TO IMPROVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/14. FRANCES HAS REMAINED ON TRACK AND THE
MAJORITY OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT NOW
...EXCEPT FOR THE NOGAPS MODEL...WHICH APPEARS TO BE A SHARP
RIGHT-OF-TRACK OUTLIER. IN FACT...THE LATEST UKMET RUN HAS SHIFTED
MUCH FARTHER WEST WHILE THE GFS HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT.
THOSE TWO MODELS...PLUS THE GFDL...HAVE NOW CONVERGED ON TOP OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THEN ONLY DIVERGE
SLIGHTLY AWAY FROM THE 12Z TRACK AFTER THAT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LOW APPEARS TO HAVE BOTTOMED OUT
AND IS SHIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD...SO ONLY A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FRANCES IS EXPECTED IN THE 36-72H
TIME PERIOD. AFTERWARDS...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...EVEN NOGAPS...
IS FORECASTING THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. AND
THE NORTH ATLANTIC TO BECOME STRONGLY ZONAL. WITH SUCH STRONG
WESTERLY HIGH-LATITUDE FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED...A CORRESPONDING
RESPONSE SHOULD BE A STRENGTHENING OF THE BERMUDA-AZORES RIDGE
WESTWARD TO PERHAPS THE U.S. EAST COAST BY 120 HOURS. THAT PATTERN
SHOULD HELP TO TURN FRANCES MORE WESTWARD AFTER 96 HOURS. AS SUCH
...THE FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

SINCE FRANCES APPEARS TO HAVE MIXED OUT ANY DRY AIR INTRUSIONS...HAS
A RATHER SMALL EYE...AND GOOD OUTFLOW ESTABLISHED...THEN ADDITIONAL
RAPID INTENSIFICATION SEEMS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR
SO. AFTER THAT...THE INTENSIFICATION TREND IS LEVELED SINCE AT
LEAST ONE CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE SHOULD OCCUR IN THE NEXT 72
HOURS DUE TO THE CURRENT SMALL DIAMETER EYE. TIMING ANY ADDITIONAL
EYEWALL CYCLES WITH ANY KIND OF SKILL JUST IS NOT POSSIBLE...BUT
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING MAY STILL OCCUR SINCE THE HURRICANE
WILL BE PASSING OVER 29C SSTS...ABOUT 1C ABOVE AVERAGE...BY 96HR.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/2100Z 13.7N 46.4W 70 KT
12HR VT 27/0600Z 14.6N 48.1W 85 KT
24HR VT 27/1800Z 15.8N 50.2W 95 KT
36HR VT 28/0600Z 16.9N 51.7W 100 KT
48HR VT 28/1800Z 17.8N 52.8W 100 KT
72HR VT 29/1800Z 19.0N 55.0W 105 KT
96HR VT 30/1800Z 20.5N 58.5W 105 KT
120HR VT 31/1800Z 21.5N 62.5W 105 KT