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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 15 (Nate) , Major: 32 (Maria) Florida - Any: 42 (Irma) Major: 42 (Irma)
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#6178 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:44 PM 26.Aug.2004)
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU AUG 26 2004

BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY.
THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOW QUITE SYMMETRICAL AND THERE HAVE BEEN
HINTS OF AN EYE...OR WARM SPOT...ON THE INFRARED IMAGES.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BECOMING EVEN MORE WELL-DEFINED...AND GLOBAL
MODEL 200 MB WIND FORECASTS SHOW A LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER/AROUND
FRANCES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THEREFORE...ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING SEEMS INEVITABLE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
THE SAME AS THAT FROM THE LAST ADVISORY. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND A LITTLE ABOVE SHIPS AT 4 AND
5 DAYS. THE LATEST FSU SUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE...295/13...IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN IN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A FURTHER DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY
AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS TROUGH
SHOULD LIFT OUT OF THE PICTURE BY 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A
LEFTWARD TURN OF THE HURRICANE SEEMS LIKELY...BUT HOW MUCH OF A
TURN WILL OCCUR IS UNCLEAR. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AT 500 MB DOES NOT
SHOW THE RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN VERY STRONGLY OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL
ATLANTIC BY 4-5 DAYS. THEREFORE THE FORWARD SPEED WILL PROBABLY
BE SLOW IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...JUST
SLIGHTLY SLOWER. THIS IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL TRACK
MODEL CONSENSUS...CONU.

IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT 4- AND 5-DAY FORECAST POINTS CAN EASILY
BE IN ERROR BY SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/0300Z 14.0N 47.3W 75 KT
12HR VT 27/1200Z 15.0N 49.1W 85 KT
24HR VT 28/0000Z 16.3N 51.2W 95 KT
36HR VT 28/1200Z 17.5N 52.8W 100 KT
48HR VT 29/0000Z 18.4N 54.0W 100 KT
72HR VT 30/0000Z 20.0N 56.5W 105 KT
96HR VT 31/0000Z 21.5N 59.0W 105 KT
120HR VT 01/0000Z 22.0N 62.0W 105 KT