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#6276 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 AM 28.Aug.2004)
TCMAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062004
0900Z SAT AUG 28 2004

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES AND THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRANCES OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 51.3W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 51.3W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 50.9W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.0N 52.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.0N 54.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.0N 56.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 20.5N 58.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 65NE 65SE 65SW 65NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 130SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 21.0N 63.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 140SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 22.0N 68.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 23.0N 72.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 51.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

FORECASTER AVILA