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#6302 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 AM 28.Aug.2004)
TCMAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062004
1500Z SAT AUG 28 2004

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES AND THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRANCES OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 51.9W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 55NE 55SE 55SW 55NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 160SE 130SW 160NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 51.9W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 51.6W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 18.3N 53.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 19.3N 55.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 20.1N 57.4W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
50 KT... 65NE 65SE 65SW 65NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 130SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 20.5N 59.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 140SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 21.3N 64.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 140SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 22.0N 69.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 23.0N 73.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 51.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

FORECASTER STEWART